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By Catherine Henry, Director, Talent Solutions at Robert Half

Geopolitical risk has moved from the margins of corporate strategy to the centre of boardroom discussion. For UK businesses, political developments now influence supply chains, capital markets and workforce planning as quickly as economic indicators.

That was the focus of The Manchester Briefing: Instability is the New Normal, hosted by Robert Half in partnership with Marsh, with attendees from across the Northwest. The event opened with remarks from Tori Goodwin, Head of Office at Marsh Corporate Manchester, followed by a keynote from John Ashcroft, founder of The Saturday Economist, examining the global economic outlook and geopolitical flashpoints influencing business strategy.

A fundamentally more unstable world outlook

George Lawley, Director of UK Government Relations at Marsh and Ashcroft; and I discussed how the forces driving global instability are structural rather than cyclical. For business leaders, the implication is clear: political developments are increasingly shaping the operating environment as much as traditional economic indicators.

Research cited during the session shows state-based armed conflict now ranks as the most severe global risk in the near term according to the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report.

At the same time, global executive surveys show geopolitical instability has become the most commonly perceived risk to global economic growth, ahead of inflation, financial volatility or trade policy uncertainty.

Ashcroft argued that the world is entering a period defined by competing spheres of influence between major powers, particularly the United States and China. The implications extend beyond diplomacy. They influence trade, energy markets, technology competition and financial systems.

Should boards appoint a Chief Geopolitical Risk Officer?

George Lawley raised a question that clearly resonated with the audience: “Should boards appoint a Chief Geopolitical Risk Officer?”

In many global companies, geopolitical analysis now sits alongside financial and operational risk management.

This prompts important questions for boards. Do organisations have access to the right expertise to interpret geopolitical developments? Are risk frameworks capable of identifying emerging political threats? And how effectively are geopolitical insights integrated into strategic planning?

Political changes can have immediate operational consequences. Sanctions, cyber attacks, trade barriers and regional conflicts can disrupt supply chains overnight.

Lawley’s point was not necessarily that every organisation needs a new executive title. Rather, boards must ensure geopolitical awareness is embedded within strategic planning and risk oversight.

Why geopolitical risk is rising on the board agenda

Ashcroft’s data highlighted why geopolitical risk has risen so quickly in boardroom discussions.

First economic growth itself is modest. UK GDP is tracking towards a long-term trend rate of around 1.5 per cent, reflecting structural productivity challenges.

Second markets are pricing uncertainty. The price of gold has surged to around $4,994 per ounce, a traditional signal that investors are seeking protection against instability.

Third global supply chains are evolving. The just in time model that characterised globalisation is gradually giving way to a just in case approach as organisations prioritise resilience and optionality.

Ashcroft described this as a shift where market risk increasingly becomes political risk, a trend that is reshaping corporate strategy.

The four biggest business challenges for the year ahead (and practical responses)

1. Supply chain resilience

Global supply networks remain exposed to geopolitical disruption. Political tensions, sanctions regimes and regional conflicts are reshaping trade routes and supplier relationships that many organisations assumed were stable.

Ashcroft highlighted that the traditional just in time supply model is increasingly being replaced by a just in case approach, as companies recognise the cost of disruption can outweigh the efficiency gains of lean supply chains. Resilience is becoming a competitive advantage rather than simply a risk mitigation exercise.

For leadership teams this means reassessing where key components, technology and raw materials originate.

Practical response:

Introduce geopolitical risk assessment into procurement decisions, diversify supplier bases where possible and develop contingency plans that allow organisations to maintain operations even when supply routes are disrupted.

2. Financial market volatility and the cost of capital

Geopolitical instability increasingly feeds directly into financial markets. Commodity prices, currencies and interest rates now react quickly to political developments, from conflict escalation to sanctions or trade restrictions.

Ashcroft’s economic outlook highlighted how investors are already positioning for uncertainty. Safe haven assets such as gold have surged to around $4,994 per ounce.Bond markets and yield curves are adjusting as investors reassess long term risk. This can translate into more volatile borrowing costs, shifts in currency valuations and changing investment conditions.

Geopolitical events can now influence the cost of capital just as quickly as economic indicators such as inflation or interest rates.

Practical response:

Finance leaders should strengthen treasury skills, stress test funding models and ensure that investment planning incorporates geopolitical scenarios alongside traditional economic forecasts.

3. Workforce and skills planning

Global instability is unfolding at the same time as rapid technological change, particularly the adoption of AI and digital transformation.

During the discussion, speakers highlighted that organisations are navigating two parallel forces. On one side geopolitical disruption can reshape labour markets through migration patterns, regulation or economic shocks. On the other side technology is changing how work itself is structured.

This creates a more dynamic workforce environment. Organisations need access to specialist skills, technology expertise and a flexible workforce while maintaining operational resilience.

Many companies are now moving towards more blended workforce models that combine permanent employees with contractors and remote talent.

Practical response:

Build workforce strategies that prioritise flexibility, invest in digital skills development and ensure organisations can scale talent capacity quickly when market conditions change.

4. Technology competition and cyber risk

Technology is increasingly at the centre of geopolitical competition between major powers. Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure and data security are no longer commercial priorities, they are strategic national capabilities.

Regulation, export controls and data governance frameworks are evolving rapidly as governments attempt to protect national interests and technological leadership.

Cyber risk in the UK continues to rise after 2025’s outages in JLR and Marks & Spencer. State aligned cyber activity and digital disruption are now recognised as geopolitical tools targeting infrastructure, businesses and institutions.

For boards, this means technology strategy can no longer be considered separately from geopolitical developments.

Practical response:

Strengthen cyber resilience frameworks, ensure technology investments align with regulatory developments and maintain strong audit and governance around data, security and digital infrastructure.

In an environment where market risk increasingly reflects political risk, resilience is becoming a leadership capability. Organisations that combine strong governance, workforce agility and forward-looking risk frameworks will be best placed to adapt to a more uncertain world.

One group, two brands supporting organisations through change

Learn more

As these risks grow, organisations increasingly need support that combines workforce expertise with strategic risk insight. Robert Half and Protiviti operate as sister brands within the same global group, working together from offices across the UK, Ireland and the wider world.

While Robert Half focuses on talent and workforce solutions, Protiviti provides consulting expertise in risk, governance, technology and transformation. Together, the two brands help businesses strengthen leadership capability, manage risk and build the resilience needed to navigate uncertain global conditions.

You can explore Marsh’s Global Risks insights, read Robert Half thought leadership on the Future of Work, or review Protiviti’s Executive Perspectives on Top Risks report to understand how boards and leadership teams are preparing for an increasingly complex operating environment. To follow John Ashcroft’s economic commentary and analysis, connect with him on X at @TheSaturdayEcon.

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